WASHINGTON/DUBLIN/BERLIN – June 7, 2025 – The Trump administration has officially added Ireland to the White House’s trade “blacklist,” citing the nation’s significant trade surplus with the United States. Switzerland joins Ireland as a new entrant on the US Treasury’s twice-yearly “Monitoring List,” which already scrutinizes major trading partners like China, Japan, Germany, Vietnam, and South Korea. This move intensifies global trade tensions and places Ireland and other European economies squarely in the crosshairs of potential new US tariffs.

Ireland, whose economy heavily relies on its pharmaceutical and technology industries for exports, is now at the forefront of countries likely to incur further trade wrath from President Donald Trump. Such escalation could pave the way for punitive tariffs and other economic sanctions. President Trump has previously voiced his frustration over the “massive deficit” with Ireland, attributing it to what he described as Ireland’s “very smart” strategy of attracting US pharmaceutical companies. He even revealed considering a hefty 200% tariff on US pharmaceutical imports from Ireland, though he emphasized a desire for “fairness” over inflicting harm.

In a scramble to preempt impending tariffs, Irish goods exports to the US surged by a remarkable 49% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year, as reported by the country’s statistics office. This export boom was a key driver behind a robust 9.7% bounce in Ireland’s GDP during the same period.

However, Irish exports face an even graver threat from Mr. Trump’s potential 50% tariff on all goods imported from the European Union. European capitals, including Dublin, are now anxiously monitoring ongoing negotiations between Brussels and Washington, striving to avert this substantial levy from hitting the bloc in early July.

The urgency of these talks was highlighted by a warning from the German central bank on Friday, stating that if a deal isn’t struck, Europe’s largest economy could remain mired in recession until 2027. Recent German data further underscored the economic vulnerability, with a 1.4% drop in factory output in April and a 10.3% slump in German exports to the US from the previous month. This decline is largely attributed to the cessation of “front-end loading” of trans-Atlantic shipments in anticipation of new tariffs.

Trade negotiators from both sides convened in Paris this week. Maros Sefcovic, the EU trade commissioner, expressed cautious optimism, reporting that talks were “advancing in the right direction at pace.” Similarly, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated his pleasure that negotiations were “advancing quickly.”

The clock is ticking, with just over four weeks remaining until the July 9 expiry of a 90-day pause on Mr. Trump’s tariffs. While the President has frequently expressed his displeasure with the EU’s trade policies, he adopted a more cordial tone during a meeting with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz in the Oval Office on Thursday. “We’ll end up hopefully with a trade deal,” he told reporters, adding, “I’m OK with the tariffs, or we make a deal with the trade.”

The US Treasury’s latest monitoring report provided specific recommendations for both Ireland and Germany. Dublin was urged to “focus on boosting activity in its domestic economy” to mitigate its “over-reliance” on export-focused multinational companies. Berlin, meanwhile, was advised that Germany’s unbalanced trade with the US was a result of its businesses and consumers “failing to open their wallets and spend their savings.” The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the fate of transatlantic trade relations and the economic outlook for key European nations.